There are few things in the world I care about as deeply and obsess over as thoroughly as the Academy Awards. I hate sports, and with cinema being my life’s passion, anyone who knows me knows that award season is my sports. I spend the entire year anticipating the start of the season and once it begins, I obsessively follow every aspect of the awards race. I have already naturally seen every film contending for major awards early on since I watch everything, so it then just becomes a months-long game of anxiously watching every pre-cursor awards show, trawling through twitter threads, frantically checking Gold Derby predictions, and constantly consuming content from my favourite award season pundits (The Oscar Expert on YouTube brings me indescribable amounts of joy). The Oscars are my Super Bowl and for the few close friends who have got to witness my mental and emotional state as I watch the ceremony each year, they know that it is the most exhilarating experience I get all year.
As I write this, we are a mere four days away from the 2022 Academy Awards. It’s crunch time. Since I have been working a lot, I haven’t had time to comment on every award show/offer every award season update that I had thoughts about as much as I would have liked to. So, I thought I would present them together in what I am hoping will be a concise and at least a somewhat inciteful prep-sheet about the major categories ahead of the Oscars on Sunday night. So, let’s go:
BEST PICTURE:
While It’s not totally outside the box that Belfast wins after all (which I would not be pleased with) or something entirely different seeing as Best Picture can sometimes be all over the place, I can’t help but agree with the consensus that this is currently a two-horse race between CODA and The Power of the Dog.
Award Season Track Record:
The Power of the Dog was the early frontrunner, sweeping all of the critics awards, taking the Golden Globe for Best Drama Motion Picture and continuing a fairly solid streak as it also took home the BAFTA for Best Film and the Critics Choice Award for Best Picture. Its chances are also greatly boosted by the fact that, as I will discuss later, Jane Campion seems pretty much like a lock to win Best Director, which so often goes hand-in-hand with Best Picture.
However, there has been this massive surge for CODA in recent weeks that I cannot ignore. This began when it took the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) for Best Ensemble, which has historically overlapped with Best Picture frequently (I would argue that in hindsight, Parasite winning Best Ensemble at the 2020 SAGs was the major clue hinting towards its surprise Best Picture win). It has also since gained momentum in other categories which I will discuss later, such as Troy Kotsur taking over as the Best Supporting Actor frontrunner and the film bizarrely being recognised by the BAFTAs and WGA (Writers Guild Awards) for its adapted screenplay. The biggest indicator though, which I was honestly shocked by, is when it took the PGA (Producers Guild Award) which is often the biggest predictor of Best Picture.
The Narrative:
It’s also vital to note that so often, the Oscar race is unfortunately less about the quality of the films, and more about the narrative surrounding them. This is certainly not always the case, but there is a well-documented history of films that are arguably not deserving of winning, taking home Best Picture because they are feel-good crowd pleasers which are not particularly challenging (Green Book perhaps being the most obvious and unfortunate example). Though I personally completely disagree with this sentiment, there has been this general consensus that The Power of the Dog is a cold, intellectual but unmoving film, which is visually gorgeous but dull. Whereas CODA is considered a touching and heart-warming story which is more appealing. The cast of CODA have also been a wonderful presence throughout award season who have made some really touching speeches. The cast is predominately made up of deaf actors, which has also caused people to rally behind the film as a remarkable showing of representation which I fully support. This group of performers are all fantastic and really charismatic. So, I do think a lot of the championing of this film comes from a desire to champion the cast.
My Feelings:
The Power of the Dog is my second favourite film of 2021. I have a full review of it up on the website, but I will reiterate that I think it’s an absolutely stunning and endlessly complex work of storytelling which I did not at all find to be cold or unmoving and think represents exemplary filmmaking craft. CODA on the other hand, I found to be a very enjoyable viewing experience and quite emotionally resonant, but nothing particularly exceptional or impressive in terms of the filmmaking craft. Again, I did really enjoy it and have no issues with it being nominated. And I really agree with it winning SAG Best Ensemble out of the group of nominees because it has a wonderful cast who give touching performances. But narratively and directorially, it’s extremely conventional and nothing particularly noteworthy.
My Prediction and Final Thoughts:
Gold Derby currently has CODA in the top spot, above The Power of the Dog. And I have to say that considering the SAG, PGA, building momentum in other categories and the narrative around it being a feel-good film with a cast people want to celebrate, I also predict it going that way, as disappointed as I will be. Again, I enjoyed CODA a lot and think it’s a lovely film, but I definitely think it's in the bottom half of this group of nominees. I personally think there are five far more deserving films, including The Power of the Dog which, apart from a dream scenario which will never ever happen where Licorice Pizza somehow wins, would be my personal choice to take it. I’m sticking with CODA though as my prediction for who I think will actually win.
BEST DIRECTOR:
This one is thankfully far more straightforward. Jane Campions seems to be pretty much a lock to take it home for The Power of the Dog.
Award Season Track Record:
She has firmly held the frontrunner spot all season, sweeping the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards and the DGA (Directors Guild Awards) in addition to her many critical awards.
The Narrative:
Jane Campion became the first woman in history to be nominated for Best Director twice, which is a horrifying statistic that only exemplifies the deep patriarchal roots of the Oscars. However, it does make for a compelling case for her to win. Also, while she made a very misguided offhand comment in her Critics Choice Award acceptance speech about the Williams sisters, which many were rightfully offended by, she gained major brownie points for her hilarious and savage comeback at Sam Elliot for his idiotic and offensive comments about The Power of the Dog.
My Feelings:
As should already be clear from my opinions on Best Picture, not including an impossible dream scenario where my guy Paul Thomas Anderson takes it for Licorice Pizza, Campion would be my pick to win anyway. The Power of the Dog is so exquisitely directed with such incredible precision and restraint and I’ll be thrilled to see her take it.
My Prediction and Final Thoughts:
There is really no other outcome I can see other than Jane. I agree with Gold Derby that Kenneth Branagh is in the number two spot behind her if there were to be an insane shock and she somehow didn’t win. I would honestly be outraged if that happened since I think the category features four incredible directorial efforts and then Kenneth who I would go as far as to say directed Belfast fairly poorly in places. However, thankfully, Campion really has this in the bag and I, for one, will be thrilled when she takes it.
BEST ASCTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Oh boy. What a mess. This category is more well and truly all over the place than probably any Oscars lineup in years. There is so many directions I could potentially see this going in.
Award Season Track Record:
This has been a rollercoaster. The season began with Kristen Stewart being the assumed frontrunner for Spencer after sweeping every critical award. That changes greatly when not only does she not win any of the main precursors, but shockingly she is not even NOMINATED for the SAG which is bizarre. Nicole Kidman won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a drama for Being the Ricardos which immediately had people jumping to name her the frontrunner, however then she won nothing else and so that was quickly dropped. Then, Jessica Chastain emerges out of nowhere and takes the SAG and Critics Choice for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, which I think at this point positions her as the closest thing the category has to a frontrunner.
The Narrative:
The problem is that there really isn’t one. Even though logic would tell you that Chastain will take it, something about it just doesn’t feel solid. I know that she has been previously nominated but never won, however I don’t think she’s old enough or as well-seasoned of a performer for that to be a truly strong narrative. Kidman has already won and is regularly celebrated by awards bodies so nothing about that feels compelling enough. Among a certain demographic there is so much love and support for Kristen Stewart who could possibly have a narrative as a breakthrough star evolving from being a teen icon. However, again that just doesn’t feel strong enough. I have seen some bizarre takes that Penélope Cruz will pull a completely surprising win for Parallel Mothers, which I would enjoy but really don’t see happening. The only person who I have not seen any conversation around is Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter, but she’s such an industry favourite that I don’t even think you can 100% count her out. Nothing is impossible.
My Feelings:
I think she’s a very talented actress but I really didn’t even think the Jessica Chastain performance should have been nominated, let alone win. It’s lacking in subtlety and really embodies that sentiment of the Oscars often thinking that the best acting = the MOST acting, which of course it’s not. I also would be very disappointed by a Nicole Kidman win as she gives what I believe to be a mediocre performance by her standards. My choice to win would be Kristen Stewart who I think gives by far the best performance of the group, however would be pleased with a Colman or Cruz win even if they’re extremely unlikely.
My Prediction and Final Thoughts:
I’m predicting Chastain, as is Gold Derby, because she’s the closest thing we have to a frontrunner, but as I said I really wouldn’t rule anything out. I do know though, that if she wins it will go down in history, at least for me, as a Renée Zellweger-esque extremely disappointing win in a year with performances as phenomenal as Stewart, Cruz and Colman.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Will Smith is certainly the frontrunner for King Richard, but I wouldn’t rule out Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog completely.
Award Season Track Record:
There really has been a Will Smith clean sweep as he took the Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice, leaving nothing on the table for Cumberbatch apart from some of the smaller critical awards.
The Narrative:
He’s got a very strong narrative forged as an iconic industry favourite and household name who has never won an Oscar. Additionally, the way the movie is produced and so heavily backed by Serena and Venus Williams themselves and they’ve been present at every award show, is all perfectly orchestrated for his Oscar-winning moment. However, Cumberbatch’s performance is the critical darling whom I have seen arguably much more passionate championing for within certain groups. And before the main precursor awards, he was cleaning up the critical circuit. I think if Best Picture ends up tipping towards The Power of the Dog and we see it sweep a little on the night, then Cumberbatch could be brought along for the ride.
My Feelings:
It’s no surprise by now that I am a firm supporter of The Power of the Dog and as someone who was not previously a fan of Cumberbatch, I think he’s pretty extraordinary and would personally be thrilled to see him take it. Will Smith is obviously an industry icon who deserves to be recognised for his accomplished career, but I don’t think King Richard is his best performance and would rather see him win for something else.
My Prediction and Final Thoughts:
I’m predicting Will to take it, as is Gold Derby, but as I said I would not be completely shocked by a Cumberbatch win and would love for that to happen.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Out of every award this year, nothing is more in the bag than Supporting Actress and I couldn’t be happier. It’s obviously Ariana DeBose.
Award Season Track-Record:
The Golden Globe, the SAG, the BAFTA, the Critics Choice Award and an abundance of critical awards, DeBose has had as clean of an award season sweep as is possible for her performance in West Side Story.
The Narrative:
There’s such a nice narrative forged for this win with the full circle moment it presents. Sixty years ago, Rita Moreno won Best Supporting Actress for her portrayal of Anita in West Side Story (1961). Now, decades later, Ariana DeBose is set to win the same award for the same role for a remake of West Side Story which Rita Moreno has a new role in. It would live with Marlon Brando and Robert DeNiro’s Vito Corleone as one of the only times in history that two actors would both win an Oscar for playing the same character. It’s just a wonderful full circle moment.
My Feelings:
I absolutely adore this performance and think she lights up the screen for every second that she’s visible. It was legitimately my favourite supporting performance from an actress of the year so I will be overjoyed when she takes it.
My Prediction and Final Thoughts:
I don’t have anything else to add. DeBose is going to take it and I can’t wait to see it.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
This category has been a crazy one to witness unfold as Kodi Smit-McPhee, once the strong frontrunner for The Power of the Dog, has been completely overtaken by Troy Kotsur in CODA.
Award Season Track Record:
Kodi Smit-McPhee came out swinging when he won the Golden Globe, in addition to his collection of critical awards, and just seemed like such a consensus pick to win. However, Troy Kotsur quickly overtook him as he secured the SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice.
The Narrative:
Kodi Smit Mc-Phee is a great example of a young up-and-comer who has been working under the radar for years but finally had a really strong breakthrough. Troy Kotsur, on the other hand, has what is usually the more dominating narrative with the Oscars, which is quite simply an older actor being rewarded. What fuels this is that many take the stance that young performers like Kodi will “have more chances in the future” and so don’t need to win for a fantastic performance they just gave, which I really hate as a mindset. The other thing tipping massively in Troy’s favour is that award season speeches can massively push an awards campaign and sell voters on voting a particular way. Kodi has not gotten the chance to make a noteworthy speech while Troy has now given a handful of really memorable and charming ones which definitely bode well in his favour.
My Feelings:
I think Troy Kotsur gives a fantastic and very moving performance. However, Kodi Smit-McPhee gives one of my favourite performances of the year and I was honestly devastated when he lost his frontrunner status. Him and DeBose as our supporting winners this year would have been my favourite thing. I think the real difference, which is partially holding Kodi back but is what I find so special about his performance, is that Troy has moments of emotional outburst where he gets to showcase his talent in a very obvious way. Kodi Smit-McPhee's performance on the other hand, is extremely subtle and restrained with no climactic emotional moment. Because of the nature of his character, everything is kept extremely close to his chest and he has to express a lot with a little. It’s what I find to be so brilliant and so meticulously effective about the performance, but is also unfortunately what I think will hold him back a little with voters, as unfortunately subtle performances are just not what the Academy tends to award.
My Prediction and Final Thoughts: I think it’s pretty clear that Troy is going to take it, as is the Gold Derby consensus once again. However, I have held on to a tiny bit of hope that there is still some remaining goodwill for Kodi’s performance and would love it if he somehow pulled off a surprise win.
I am not going to be as thorough, but here are some very brief thoughts and predictions for a couple of other categories:
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Honestly baffled that CODA now seems to be the frontrunner and won the WGA because, while I like the film, its screenplay is by far its weakest aspect which is quite contrived and holds it back. This category is otherwise so strong and I would love for anyone else to take it, but of course my pick would probably be The Power of the Dog which previously picked up some wins and is definitely not completely out of the race to still take it.
Best Original Screenplay:
Once upon a time this was assumed as the opportunity for Paul Thomas Anderson, probably the greatest filmmaker of the 21st century, to finally win an Oscar after being nominated numerous times. Licorice Pizza was far and away my pick to win and did take the BAFTA. However, the race has now so bizarrely shifted to Belfast which I would maybe go as far to say has an outright not good screenplay, and is again the film’s weakest asset. Just absolutely baffling to me that it's been raking up wins and will now probably take the Oscar. This will be an all-time bad win for me if it happens. A travesty.
Best Cinematography:
I think it's headed to Greig Fraser for Dune which I would not at all be unhappy with, especially as I think Fraser is on such a hot streak right now with Dune and now The Batman. However, I think my personal pick would be Ari Wegner for The Power of the Dog for just absolutely exquisite work that is such an important factor in the film’s ability for silent storytelling. She took the Critics Choice Award and a couple of other things so it’s not totally out of the question, but I will still be pleased with Fraser. Alternatively, Janusz Kaminski for West Side Story is a very unlikely but totally deserving surprise win that I’d love to see.
Best Original Score:
I think this is also going to Dune, as is the consensus, which again I don’t think is undeserving. However, it is honestly a travesty to me that it’s not Jonny Greenwood’s absolutely perfect and chilling score for The Power of the Dog which I honestly think is an all-timer.
Best Editing:
Another probable win for Dune which I would support, but I have seen some noise recently for King Richard which is intriguing to me. I still think it’s Dune but it’ll be interesting to see how this goes.
I don’t want this piece to be too long. And so, apart from saying that I want The Worst Person in the World to take International Film but will still be happy when it’s Drive My Car, want Flee to win Animated and/or Documentary Feature and want Billie Eilish to take Best Song, I’m not going to give my opinions on Makeup and Hairstyling, Costume Design, Visual Effects, Sound or Production Design. I have thoughts/predictions on them but just wouldn’t say they're as thorough or impassioned. Also, the only categories at the Oscars which I will admit that I just don’t engage with at all are the short film categories. Sorry. There’s just too much to watch.
My only other thoughts I want to offer ahead of Sunday are about the Oscars telecast itself, as they have been bizarrely butchering the nature of the show this year in a way that makes me really sad. Primarily, this is obviously through their announcement that not every category is going to be presented on air this year. A number of the awards, including Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score and more, will be not televised and will be presented off-air. This was clearly a decision made to try and entice more of the general public to watch the show as the viewing figures have been dwindling over the last many years. As well as being just outright offensive to all of those talented craftspeople who are just as important in the filmmaking process as anyone else, it’s just so idiotic to me. Because I can promise you that nobody who wasn’t going to watch the Oscars before will now be seduced into watching the show just because it will be slightly shorter. Instead, all they are doing is pushing away and upsetting the extremely dedicated core audience they still have and turning what is supposed to be an annual celebration of cinema into some bizarre, bastardized television event that is rejecting its very nature as an all-out, thorough showcase of the craft of cinema.
Combined with this is the other bad production decisions they’ve made, which again only betray the films that they are supposed to be showcasing. This lies in the fact that they’ve continued to announce more and more insanely random pop culture figures to present who have nothing to do with cinema (DJ KHALED? TONY HAWK? SHAWN MENDES?). These are people who don’t connect with the content of the show in any way. Meanwhile, Rachel Zegler THE STAR OF A BEST PICTURE NOMINEE revealed on Instagram a few days ago that she wasn’t invited to the ceremony. After it became a media storm they have since invited her to present, but I can’t even wrap my head around the insanity of the fact that she wasn’t invited. DJ KHALED is being invited to the Oscars over the stars of the actual movies?? The final nail in the coffin is the fact that out of the endless options surely available to them, they have a strange and bad host trio who don't seem like they will add much (I am primarily alluding to Amy Schumer here).
As much as I complain, I am still as excited for the ceremony as ever, because this really is my Super Bowl. It’s the peak of my interests and this year, unlike some others, features a handful of films that I genuinely adore. I hope my ramblings have been at least partially interesting and I am both nervous and extremely excited to see if I’m wrong anywhere or if we get any true surprises, because leave it to the Oscars for there to always be at least one.
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